2026 Tahoe Truckee Housing Market Forcast

The national housing market has been running hot for years buyers stretched, sellers locked into low mortgage rates, and renters battling historic price spikes. But fresh data from Realtor.com’s 2026 Housing Forecast finally points to something the Tahoe Truckee market hasn’t seen in a long time: a slow, steady return to balance.

For anyone navigating real estate in the mountains—whether you’re eyeing a golf-course home in Schaffer’s Mill or a modern lodge in Lahontan—these trends matter.

Here’s what’s ahead.

Realtor.com forecasts mortgage rates easing to near 6.3% and an 8.9% increase in active inventory in 2026.
Existing-home sales are expected to reach 4.13 million, while affordability improves as monthly payments fall to 29.3% of median income.
Rent prices are projected to decline 1.0% as vacancy rates rise toward 7.2%.

The U.S. housing market has been stuck in a pressure cooker for years now.

Buyers pushed to their limit. Sellers reluctant to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates. Renters squeezed as pandemic-era housing shortages drove rents to record highs.

But according to Realtor.com’s new 2026 Housing Forecast, that long stretch of imbalance will finally start to ease next year.

This isn’t a dramatic rebound. It’s a gradual correction that finally helps more buyers move. And if you spend every day working in housing, that shift matters.

The forecast shows a market inching back toward balance. Mortgage rates hold steadier. Price growth cools. Inventory keeps rising. Rents soften where new supply hits.

None of these shifts will solve the affordability crisis, but together they create a better playing field for consumers and those helping them move.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, describes the moment as a turning point.

“After a challenging period for buyers, sellers and renters, 2026 should offer a welcome, if modest, step toward a healthier housing market. Incomes climbing faster than inflation as mortgage rates steady at a lower level create space for affordability to improve. Declining rental prices will continue to give renters more relief from pandemic highs. It’s not a dramatic reset, but it’s a meaningful shift that moves the market back toward balance.”